The current supply situation and the long delivery times for cartonboard are likely to persist for some time, the FFI concludes from a recent flash survey. Customers can make a significant contribution to ease the situation by optimising their forecasts of the packaging volume actually required.
“We see appropriate communication by the respective market partners as crucial to calming the out-of-sync supply chain by efficiently linking the actual current and future demand for folding cartons of the customers with the capacities of raw materials,” states Andreas Helbig, spokesman of the FFI Board.
However, external factors such as the volatility of recovered paper supply, the development of energy costs or the general upward inflation trend remain challenging. Nevertheless, the supply chain for folding cartons is considered resilient.
The FFI flash survey shows, among other things, there is currently a significantly extended range of folding carton manufacturers’ own order backlog compared to the beginning of 2021. Currently, the average order backlog is eleven weeks. This contrasts with delivery times for virgin fibre or recycled cartonboard, which in some cases are significantly longer.
In several rounds of price increases, the cost of virgin fibre cartonboard rose between 10-20% and recycled cartonboard by more than 20% for more than two thirds of the 36 folding carton manufacturers who participated in the FFI survey. What is striking, but understandable against this backdrop, are the developments in the companies’ own inventories. More than half of the companies report an increase or strong increase in their stocks of raw materials. Solutions for the distortions in the supply chain are seen above all in improved communication and pragmatic planning of realistic requirements for cartonboard and folding cartons.
