The global corrugated packaging market is worth $240 bn in 2026 and is forecast to grow to $265 bn by 2031, according to a new study by Smithers. Based on primary research and expert analysis, The Future of Corrugated Packaging to 2031 breaks down the global market by grade, end-use and geography, with five-year forecasts to 2031.
The global corrugated market is driven by six converging, permanent forces: automation economics, sustainability regulation, demand-side change, e-commerce growth, consolidation and geopolitics.
Automation is widening the gap between producers: top-quartile operators run 20–40% lower costs than bottom-quartile peers. The EU’s PPWR enters into application on 12 August 2026, bringing mandatory recyclability grading and EPR eco-modulation fees. Corrugated’s roughly 90% OCC recycling rate gives it a head start versus competing substrates.
High-performance recycled containerboard (HPRC) lightweighting, right-sizing, and format evolution (fanfold, paper mailers replacing regular containerboard) mean tonne volume growth lags unit count and revenue growth across 2026–2031. The report forecasts continued recovery toward markedly higher levels by 2031 as HPRC, barrier-coated, and digital-print SRP grades compound their share at the expense of commodity board.
Eric Chartrain, Associate Consultant, Smithers, says, “Following more than two decades of reliable structural growth since the globalisation era of the 1990s, the sector has entered a cyclical and structural reset since the beginning of the current decade. Unlike prior downturns driven by a single shock, the industry has absorbed multiple simultaneous disruptions: COVID-19, the Ukraine war, Middle East conflicts and Strait of Hormuz tensions, escalating US-China trade friction, and persistent global inflation across all input costs. Each shock has altered consumer habits, accelerated emerging trends, and forced organisations to demonstrate unprecedented resilience. Growth is expected to recover to the 2021 peak level by 2031, but along a decidedly non-linear trajectory.”
Demand itself is more nuanced than simple growth, the report shows. Over 80% of US and European consumers now rate private-label as equal or superior to branded goods, flattening volumes across most categories. E-commerce remains the clear growth engine, led by electrical goods (+3.4% CAGR) and personal & household care (+2.3%). PPWR’s void-space rules are further accelerating right-sizing investment across fulfilment networks.
Based on extensive primary research across the value chain, The Future of Corrugated Packaging to 2031 provides highly granular market sizes and forecasts. Its comprehensive data set quantifies capacity, supply, and demand for both containerboard and converted corrugated board, by both value and volume.
The Future of Corrugated Packaging to 2031 provides essential reading for raw material suppliers, packaging manufacturers, end-users, and industry analysts seeking a definitive view of where this market is heading. The report is available to purchase now priced $6,750 (€6.350, £5,475).
